ArmInfo. Director of the Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan anticipates no serious breakthroughs in the Karabakh peace process so far, since all the recently intensified meetings and statements at the highest level pursued one goal - de-escalation of the situation in the conflict zone.
Talking to journalists on August 23, Iskandaryan said: "Undoubtedly, during those meetings pressure was exerted on Azerbaijan, first, and on Armenia too. Suggestions were made to help defuse tensions in the conflict zone, but it is early so far to speak about any breakthroughs in the peace process after the April flare up."
In his words, a breakthrough requires concessions by both the sides to the conflict, but neither the Armenian nor the Azerbaijani publics are ready even to speak about concessions. Iskandaryan is sure that nothing new has been suggested in the peace process since 2007, and all the talks have been held around the Madrid Principles since then.
"I am skeptical about both the settlement of the conflict and further passivity of Azerbaijan on the border. I am skeptical about the establishment of a system of monitoring on the border too, since Azerbaijan insistently opposes the idea. Although there is relative peace in the conflict zone now, I think there will be changes in the long-term outlook and the situation will change not to better. I think Azerbaijan's behavior in the future will directly depend on the oil prices," Iskandaryan said.
In this context, he said, Armenia needs to increase the security measures, buy more weapons, work with the Command staff - something the country is doing now. The expert pointed at the recent intensive meetings between the relevant structures of Armenia and Russia.
As for the recent statement by NKR Presidet Bako Sahakyan about possible reasonable concessions, Alexander Iskandaryan said the entire speech by the Karabakh leader came down to the need for confidence building measures, introduction of investigation mechanisms on the border, involvement of NKR into the peace process and only then an efforts to speak of any concessions.