ArmInfo. The Russian factor in the latest events in Belarus is over estimated,Russian analyst Vadim Dubnov expressed this opinion to ArmInfo.
"At the same time, Lukashenko's visit to Putin, his appeal to Russia, in my opinion, is an exceptionally competent and quite logical step. Thus, he is trying to impart a certain geopolitical overtone to the internal political events in Belarus. At the moment, Belarusians are demanding exclusively his resignation, avoiding political, especially geopolitical, accents, "he stressed.
Meanwhile, if Lukashenko manages to change the content of slogans and banners on the streets of Minsk, thereby, according to the analyst, he will be able to win over the anti-Western, pro-Russian anti-Maidan forces to his side. According to Dubnov, the Belarusian president is now implementing this very line. According to his forecasts, this will slightly improve his position, however, it will not have a fundamental impact on his political fate.
Further actions of Moscow towards Belarus, according to Dubnov, are dictated by political logic. Russia cannot, should not and will not interfere in the situation, since it is not 2014, and Belarus is not Crimea, and not only politically, but also geographically. According to him, Crimea was in a state of uncertainty between the West and Russia. Meanwhile, Belarus shares borders with three NATO countries, Ukraine and the Russian Federation, which leads to great risks in case of interference.
"However, there is a scenario, that is far from being logical. And we have no right to neglect such a scenario. Our elite has a sufficient number of people mistakenly called madmen. In reality, these people are far from madness, they have their own logic, their dividends, and therefore are not against the scenario of escalation of the situation. In any case, I think the first, logical scenario is more likely, "he said.
Commenting on the likelihood of exporting the Belarusian scenario to Russia, which President Lukashenko has been talking about all the last weeks, Dubnov assessed such forecasts as exaggerated. "I do not think that the Belarusian scenario will somehow affect the situation in Russia. Especially against the background of how in Khabarovsk people opposing the government are simultaneously electing a governor from United Russia. Thus, the Russian logic is somewhat different from the Belarusian one and does not inspire much optimism, "Dubnov concluded.