Tuesday, August 18 2020 16:19

ArmInfo. Director of the Caucasus Institute, political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan is convinced that what is happening in Belarus today is very similar to what is called zugzwang in chess, that is, no matter what step is  taken, it will only get worse.

According to the expert, Belarus is on the verge of serious changes,  and regardless of who will be in power in the future - the incumbent  President Alexander Lukashenko will somehow be able to hold on to, or  someone else will come - the country will be greatly weakened and  will pass through turbulence.

At the same time, he believes that the next 2-3 days will be decisive  for the future of the country, since the situation has become stable,  and in the coming days it will become clear in what direction events  will develop, however, in any scenario, turbulence cannot be avoided.

At the same time, Iskandaryan believes that , and the proposals for  constitutional reforms are belated, and rather are an attempt at a  civilized transfer of power. The political scientist did not rule out  that these proposals are an attempt to gain time and try to stabilize  the situation in the country. However, according to him, apparently,  this will be difficult to achieve, due to the scarcity of resources  at the current head of state.

"In principle, Lukashenko, as a person, as an individual is quite  militant and stable. There were many cases in his political biography  when it was hard for him. But these difficulties were more in foreign  policy, not in domestic, and he has an image of a person, who doesn't  like to give up," the political scientist said.

Referring to Lukashenko's call to Moscow, the expert reminded that  drowning people are known to grab at straws. Iskandaryan stated that  relations with Putin have been developing very difficult lately, and  Moscow was waiting for these elections in Belarus.

"It was clear to Moscow that Mr. Lukashenko would come out of these  elections weakened and if he succeeded and if the elections were  successful for him, they would start talking to him.

But, then, everything changed, since Lukashenko began playing the  anti-Russian card before the elections.  It is obvious that  Lukashenko is trying to get out of this situation, and Russia is just  waiting for what will happen," the political scientist said, while  expressing his conviction that today the Kremlin has no way to keep  Lukashenko in power, which does not mean that the Belarusian leader  cannot keep power himself.

The expert also considers the talk about the introduction of Russian  troops into Belarus to be frivolous, and if this happens, it will be  the second Ukraine.

At the same time, Iskandaryan believes that neither Russia nor the  West are capable of doing anything to save Lukashenko today, since it  is impossible to do it from the outside, it is another matter if it  happens from within. He also believes that Russia will benefit from a  weak Belarus.

According to Iskandaryan, the West will not solve Belarus' problems  in the future, since these are multibillion-dollar subsidies, and the  threat of sanctions is just a "shaking of the air." 

"Belarus miraculously managed to preserve the social and economic  type of state that was under the Soviet Union. It prolonged it, and  in an amazing way preserved it, unlike oil countries, which were able  to soften the economy through high oil prices. This situation has  come to an end, and is one of the most important reasons for what is  happening in Belarus today," he said. In this context, the political  scientist recalled that in 2018 such a good revolution also took  place in Armenia, such good people came to power, and democracy, but  where are tens of billions of investments? The same will happen in  Belarus, but the problems will have to be solved, and these will be  primarily social problems.

Speaking about the impact of the situation in Belarus on the  configuration within the Eurasian Economic Union, Iskandaryan noted  that there are problems in the EAEU without it. "There are problems  in the EAEU, and this is not related to Belarus. If we look at the  EAEU of the era of coronavirus, everything will become obvious. But  if we talk about Belarus, then we need to understand that the EAEU is  not a way of bilateral interaction of states - it is a way of  centering the policies of all of these countries on Russia. There are  different axes: Minsk-Moscow-Yerevan, Nursultan-Moscow-Bishkek, etc.   The axes are different; we all have different needs and sizes,  different issues of concern. I do not think that the Armenians had  great interests with the Belarusians, therefore, I believe that it  will remain as it was. The EAEU will remain for Armenia, as for the  rest of the EAEU members, a form of loyalty to the Russian  Federation. I think for Belarus too," the political scientist said.   At the same time, he is convinced that there can be no serious  anti-Russian sentiments in Belarus, and there is no point in  canceling the EAEU or the Union State.

At the same time, Inskandaryan believes that it is impossible to draw  parallels between what is happening in Belarus today, with what the  world observed two years ago in Armenia. The political scientist  stated that protests still have no leader in Belarus. Tikhonovskaya  is not a paramilitary leader, while information support is provided  in a very centralized, literate manner.  According to political  scientists, the regime in Belarus, which is located in the center of  Europe between Poland and Lithuania, is archaic. And protest in  Belarus is not so much social as aesthetic. "People who were born and  raised in this country, these 30-year-old "IT specialists" have seen  nothing but Lukashenko in their lives, and the tired from this  aesthetics of the Soviet collective farm and they rise up against  it," Iskandaryan noted that this is the problem, not the 26-year  rule. It's just that the rulers have such a property that if they  stay too long at their posts, then they lose the feeling of reality  and connection with the outside world.

To note, massive opposition protests began throughout Belarus on  August 9, after the presidential election, which was won by the  incumbent head of state Alexander Lukashenko - according to the CEC,  he gained 80.1% of the vote. In the first days, the security forces  suppressed the actions; against the protesters who did not agree with  the results, they used tear gas, water cannons, flash-noise grenades,  rubber bullets. Then the law enforcement agencies stopped dispersing  the rallies and using force. According to official data, over 6,700  people were detained in the first days. As reported by the Ministry  of Internal Affairs of the republic, during the riots, hundreds of  people were injured, among them over 120 law enforcement officers,  one protester was killed.