Tuesday, November 18 2014

The crisis in Ukraine, Russia's relations with the EU and EuroAtlantic Alliance and the influence on the regional security in the South Caucasus are in the focus of attention of the 2nd South Caucasus Security Forum that kicked off in Tbilisi today, on 18 November.  

CENAA (Center for Eurasian and North-Atlantic Affairs) in cooperation with GFSIS (Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies) are the event organizers, ArmInfo's correspondent reports from Tbilisi.  The conference has brought together over 100 political experts and scientists from various countries. 

Experts say that the latest developments in Ukraine have generated a serious discussion around the basic principles of NATO, including the known Article 5 that implies the security principles of the Alliance members, as well as around the urgent need for correction of the foreign policy and security issues of the EU countries and their relations with Russia and Ukraine in the light of the latter's strategic orientation. On the other hand, the new situation casts light upon Russia's strategic goals given its relations with NATO, the political line in the relations with Eastern Europe, South Caucasus and Central Asia.  

The format of the Forum seemed to bear little resemblance to discussions for lack of fundamentally different viewpoints on the situation. It was rather aimed at criticism of Russia's policy. Those present were sure that Russia's policy of building a multi-polar world would be a failure. Some think Russia seeks to retain its political influence on the post-Soviet countries. However, Russia's policy of 'soft power' ended in a fiasco and now the 'soft power' was replaced with 'crude power' in terms of Crimea's annexation, intervention into the southeast of Ukraine and reinforcement of the military base in Kaliningrad with "Iskander" rockets directed against Europe. Some of the keynote speakers said Russia uses frozen conflicts in the Europe, including in the South Caucasus, as a well-tested scenario to maintain its influence in many regions, including in Georgia as a country transiting hydrocarbon resources.  However, the situation is fraught with big danger, as Crimea's annexation can be considered as a precedent for Azerbaijan, which pins hopes with military settlement of the Karabakh conflict.
Ukrainian political scientists, in turn, said at the Forum that Ukraine's aspiration for Europe and NATO is a 'civilizational choice' and not 'organizational' as they in the Kremlin wrongly believe. Nevertheless, European political scientists believe that today's geopolitical challenges bind NATO to improve its infrastructure, to make it more flexible and able to promptly respond to emerging challenges.  There were also different viewpoints at the meeting. For instance, some experts are sure that the sanctions against Russia may have a reverse effect and enable Russia concentrate its efforts towards protection of its geopolitical and economic interests in the post-Soviet area 'under the umbrella' of the Eurasian idea and a new power center in terms of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). As sanctions and pressure on Russia grows, that country may become less and less predictable - something that little contributes to European security. Anyway, Russia with its unresolved problems does not seek any growth of confrontation in the South Caucasus.

It is noteworthy that the two-day Forum will touch upon a broad spectrum of security-related issues, including the 'Vyshegrad four' in the light of EU's policy towards the crisis in Ukraine, development of the Eastern Partnership after the Vilnius Summit, China's stand on the developments in the world and its new initiative, the so-called Silk Road Economic Belt.  Energy security issues, energy infrastructure, as well as the risks and threats to transnational energy projects will be discussed at the Forum