Recent development around Nagorno Karabakh have caused Armenia to question Russia's commitment as a security guarantor, Stratfor writes in the article "Belarus and Armenia Re-Evaluate Relations with Russia."
There are many factors that have caused Armenia to question Russia's commitment as a security guarantor, the Stratfor analysts say. They spotlight "Moscow's lack of response to the helicopter shoot-down. Armenia has not launched any major reprisal attacks, and on Jan. 27 Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian admitted that the helicopter that was shot down had deviated from its course and said that officials were dismissed as a result. This startling and uncharacteristic admission shows that Armenia may be recalculating its position in relation to Russia - something that the West and Turkey could try to capitalize on."
Analysts are sure that after Armenia defeated Azerbaijan in a six-year war over the region, Russia became Armenia's de facto security guarantor. "The 5,000 Russian troops stationed in Armenia have served to check Azerbaijan's ambitions to reclaim the territory and also to guard Armenia's borders with the larger Caucasus powers of Turkey and Iran," they say. Among the negative factors, Stratfor analysts mention the Ukraine crisis that has affected the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. "Fighting has increased along the line of contact between Armenia and Azerbaijan; violence spiked in August 2014, and in November 2014 Azerbaijani forces shot down an Armenian helicopter. Azerbaijan has gained more room to maneuver in the conflict because of its sought-after energy resources and Russia's focus on the Ukrainian theater."
"Still, Armenia has been careful not to stray too far from Russia. Despite a Russian soldier's recent killing of an Armenian family in Gyumri, which has generated controversy and demonstrations in Armenia, Yerevan has stood by Moscow. Ohanian said the incident "should not drive a wedge in the Armenian-Russian relations," adding that Russia's military presence in Armenia "is solving a larger regional issue." Russia's military backing is crucial to Armenia, but continuation or escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict - such as Azerbaijani forces' alleged shoot-down of an Armenian unmanned aerial vehicle Jan. 29 - will test Yerevan's resolve," the article reads.