The optimism about the Vienna arrangements is too high, according to Deputy Director of the Caucasus Institute Sergey Minasyan.
"It is obvious that we have achieved some success on the diplomatic arena and that we have some progress in the peace process. The progress is reflected in the parties' willingness to introduce mechanisms to investigate the incidents along the line of contact and to expand the Office of the OSCE CiO. However, I suppose that even if the parties manage to introduce such mechanisms in the shortest time possible, i.e. within the next few weeks, nevertheless, the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents' negotiations in June will come across some obstacles, because the parties' discrepancies about the settlement of the conflict are too big," Minasyan said at today's press conference in Yerevan. He added that Baku expects unilateral concessions from the Armenian side, however, neither Yerevan nor Stepanakert is going to make any concessions.
Minasyan supposes the Karabakh conflict zone will shortly experience a new phase of escalation given the statements voiced from Baku following the meeting in Vienna.
"I believe determination of the NKR status should become a priority in the current situation, because it would somehow provide security guarantees. The April events have strengthened the military sentiments both the Azerbaijani society and among the authorities. Now they are convinced even more that the problem must be resolved in a military way," he said.
When asked about the 800 ha territorial losses of the Armenian side, Minasyan said that the matter concerns two hills lost in the northern and southern sections during the days of the Azerbaijani aggression. "I suppose it will no longer be possible to retrieve the positions we had before the April events," Minasyan said.
To note, on May 16 the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents met in Vienna in the presence of Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov, Secretary of State of the United States of America John Kerry, and State Secretary for European Affairs of France Harlem Desir, representing the co- chair countries of the OSCE Minsk Group. "They reiterated that there can be no military solution to the conflict. The Co-Chairs insisted on the importance of respecting the 1994 and 1995 ceasefire agreements. The Presidents reiterated their commitment to the ceasefire and the peaceful settlement of the conflict. To reduce the risk of further violence, they agreed to finalize in the shortest possible time an OSCE investigative mechanism. The Presidents also agreed to the expansion of the existing Office of the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairperson in Office. Finally, they agreed to continue the exchange of data on missing persons under the auspices of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to which the Presidents committed during the Paris summit of October 2014. The Presidents agreed on a next round of talks, to be held in June at a place to be mutually agreed, with an aim to resuming negotiations on a comprehensive settlement," the OSCE Minsk Group's statement says.