Given the inflation, it will be impossible to ensure the targeted 2.2% economic growth in 2016, lawmaker from the opposition Armenian National Congress Faction, ex-prime minister of Armenia Hrant Bagratyan said.
He recalled that 10 years ago the task was to double the GDP, however, it is getting obvious today that the situation keeps changing for the worse due to the lack of economic development model in the draft state budget of the country. As a result, the incumbent government will have the same fate as the previous one, which had no policy at all. The economist thinks that the post-crisis economic growth has been exhausted. In this situation, it is necessary to create clusters. A total of 150-200 bln AMD should be raised for creation of 2-3 clusters. The funds can be attracted both through loans and through placing the government securities into circulation. "Only in this case the economy will start growing," said Bagratyan, noting that next year Armenia will face budget problems.
The real GDP growth in Armenia will make up 2.2% in 2016, according to the draft state budget of 2016. The GDP deflator index will be 4%, 12-month inflation - 4% (+1.5%), the AMD/USD exchange rate - 483.2 AMD/1USD, budget deficit - 3.5% of GDP. Expenditures will total 1 trillion 373.7 billion AMD, and revenues - 1 trillion 183 billion AMD, with the deficit being 197 bln AMD. Taxes and duties will make up 95.4% of the revenues, and official grants and other revenues will be 2.6% and 2% respectively. Taxes and duties are expected to total 1 trillion 129 billion AMD, the grants within the European Neighborhood Policy are expected to amount to 24 million EUR or 13 billion AMD, and the grants under target programs will amount $35.6 million or 17.2 billion AMD. Other revenues will total 23.8 bln AMD in 2016.