Tuesday, November 3 2015 11:11

Although US President vetoed the draft defense budget 2016 that among others provided for US$300 million aid to Ukraine’s arm, Kiev still hopes the military and other aid of US to Ukraine will continue through the so-called continuing resolution that will postpone the budget 2015 expenditures for the next year. Would you assess the efficiency of the US aid to Ukraine’s army amid protracted confrontation in the southeast of the country?

Barack Obama’s decision was completely predictable. The most important thing is that the fact of Obama-Putin anti-Ukrainian coalition being established is beyond any doubts. However, this coalition functions not only against Ukraine. Obama-Putin coalition is established in a larger context and currently its main target is Syria. Therefore, the decision on putting veto on the law of military aid in geopolitical coordinates of the contemporary power politics becomes secondary. So-called “aid” from the current US government seems not adequate and cannot be adequate, taking into account the above mentioned. Now, as never before, it is perceived that Ukraine is alone and there is a real fight for independence ahead.

Russia’s air strikes on IS targets in Syria has distracted the attention of the world community from Ukraine crisis. What were its effects on the conflict and the situation in Ukraine in general?

Such ‘destruction’ was predictable. European politicians and organizations failed to resolve the Ukraine crisis. President Obama-led White House has established an alliance with Putin-led Kremlin. Putin, in turn, charged Poroshenko not to take any actions against the seized territories in Donbass, which was done. Such behavior of Poroshenko enabled Russia to focus on war in Syria. Simultaneously, Russia is intensively building-up amid regular “peace period.” This cannot but end in a new stage of hostilities.

Ukraine’s Aviation Service announced that Moscow and Kiev will launch consultations next week to resume air communication that was suspended by Ukraine on September 25. Was that decision within the interests of Ukraine? Was it initiated by Kiev?  

The decision to close the air communication with Russia should have been adopted immediately after Russian’s military intervention in Crimea. The current decision was based the decision of Ukraine’s Council of National Security and Defense on the sanctions against an aggressor-country.  However, the decision cannot have a large-scale effect, as it leaves loopholes. In addition, Ukraine has already opened several air corridors for Russia’s plane. Such decisions must be adopted basing on strategic and geo-strategic calculations. So, lamenting any “interests” is senseless. If the incumbent government cancels its decision, it will spark serious public discontent. Yet, after the October 25 elections, the incumbent government is almost ‘ex.’ At the same time, every new day of cancelled flights to Ukraine makes the cancellation of this decision more complicate and far off.

Most recently, Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko has in fact voiced Moscow’s general position, when saying that Russia and Ukraine are 'doomed' to close cooperation in historic perspective. Is there a similar point of view in Ukraine, beyond Lugansk and Donetsk regions?

Such statements are absolutely traditional and targeted at Russian citizens only. However, the level of hatred of Russians towards Ukraine according to the latest Russian sociological surveys is extremely high. There are no doubts that a new phase of forceful expansion into Ukraine is being prepared by Kremlin. The whole question is, when it will start, A lot of factors indicate that this phase may start already in the beginning of November. It is necessary to state, that Minsk agreements already does not exist, as only their 'shade' remained, and behind the word 'Minsk' itself Kremlin stands, simultaneously implementing its real agenda.

 

Polish President Andrzej Duda started his governance from a call to the Poles to be ready to fight for former Polish lands (Polesie, Galicia and Volyn), where “Poles suffer persecution and indignity from the new Ukrainian authorities”. Kiev which looks toward EU, is not concerned by these statements, taking into account that another two EU member countries Rumania and Hungary may hold similar demands against Ukraine.

If Poland's President Andrzej Duda has really made such statement that was ascribed to him by some mass media, the situation in Ukraine is very close to catastrophe. However, it is necessary to be acutely aware whether Andrzej Duda has really made such statement before making any analysis and foreseeing possible perspectives. At the moment it can only be stated with certainty that a scenario of destabilizing the situation on western borders of Ukraine is launched