Thursday, May 29 2014

 What are the
prospects of the final formation of the Customs Union and Eurasian Economic Union
against the background of the latest events in Ukraine? The power change in Ukraine seems to 
delay the Eurasian projects of Moscow…

  Change of power in Kyev  has not stopped but even speeded up the
process of establishing the Eurasian Economic Union,.The evident forced
're-orientation' of Ukraine to the European Union stimulated Armenia and
Kyrghyzstan to actively involve in the Eurasian
Economic Union and enhanced the cooperation of Russia,
Kazakhstan and Belarus. The
state coup in Kyev catalyzed civilizational
self-determination of a range of non-western countries with an eye for the
prospects of the EAEU: Vietnam,
South Korea, Mongolia, Iran,
Syria, and Turkey. As for
the absence of Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev from the CSTO Moscow
Summit,  it would be wrong stating that Nazarbayev
refused to meet his counterparts from Russia and CIS countries. The
Kazakh president just  considered it
inexpedient to study the situation in Ukraine in the given format.
According to Nazabayev, the situation in Kyev touches the interests of Russia,
but not the CSTO countries. In addition, the processes
in Ukraine and CSTO's stance
on the given issue is a very  delicate
issue and the president of Kazakhstan
is, sure, too sophisticated
a politician to discuss that issue in an enlarged meeting before all the
nuances are understood.

 By the results
of the meeting between president of Kazakhstan,  US
deputy secretary of state, William Burrns, said that Washington and its
partners will go on increasing pressure upon Russia
until Moscow changes its course regarding Ukraine. Is such
development of events possible?

 

 Certainly, in the context  of Russia's
unwillingness to make concessions to the USA,
Washington's administration will increase pressure
upon Russia.
However, in case of Russia,
this pressure will have a boomerang effect. The sanctions against our country
are likely to cause not fear or willingness to make concessions to Washington,
but on the contrary, an aspiration to form the harsher and more strict position
regarding the policy conducted by the Western  "partners", up to replacement of its
local political doctrine  and transition
from the conception of a "soft force" to the "smart force"
or "just force". Such a concept of a "just force" has been
recently prepared by the EurAsEC and submitted to Russia's Foreign  Ministry for 
discussion. I think that today changing of  Russia's
policy towards the USA
is a necessity dictated by the  latest
challenges and bobbery of the global politics.

 

 The
unwillingness of Georgia and
Azerbaijan to take part in
the Eurasian projects increases the importance of Armenia’s
participation in them, as the only Caucasus
state. However, the talks on Armenia’s
joining the Customs Union has not 
completed yet. What  is the main reason of it? 

 

  The delay of Armenia's joining the Customs Union
and Eurasian Economic Union is linked with such a technical problem, as an
extremely long list of  goods to be
withdrawn from the general conditions of the customs clearance.

I see no
reasons in the political context. Because of 
external reasons, it is beneficial for Armenia
to establish closer relations with Russia and the Customs Union. I
think that Georgia and Azerbaijan do not want to take part in the
Eurasian projects of Moscow.
Because of several external reasons, today it is more beneficial to Georgia and Azerbaijan
 to keep "neutrality" and
distance both from Russia
as well as the Customs Union.

 Aleksandr Lukashenko
doubts about the prospects of participation of Belarus in the Eurasian Union. What is the reason of it?

  I think that Aleksandr  Lukashenko's "doubts" about the
prospects of Belarus
in the Eurasian Economic Union are explained by his pragmatic and practical
stance. Of course, at first sight, it is not clear why the key partner of  Russia at the post-Soviet area is
not interested in participation in the Eurasian projects. But it becomes clear,
when we remember that on the threshold of signing of the Agreement on
foundation of the  Eurasian Economic
Union Lukashenko expressed his doubts, but later he got a
regular credit from Russia
in exchange for withdrawal of these "doubts".

  There is a viewpoint,
according to which, if pro-Russian forces gain a victory in Ukraine, the next will be Moldova and Azerbaijan. Is fulfillment of such a
scenario possible?

 The development of the situation in Ukraine and the forceful option of Ukraine's "integration" in the EU
demonstrates what the leadership of  Azerbaijan will
have in case of flirting with the pro-European elites and European officials.  The development of the situation in Ukraine in favor of the  supporters of federalization will not have any
other serious consequences for Azerbaijan.
There is no Russian-language community or any significant "pro-Russian"
forces in this country. I  think that
federalization of Ukraine
will not have serious consequences for Moldova either. This country has
taken  the course of integration in the
European Union, and today even the true threat of de-facto separation of the
Dnister region from  Moldova cannot
stop the Moldovian elite gaining the financial aid from the European Union,
especially if we take into consideration the fact that the leadership of Moldova
have already made up their mind to losing of the Dnister region and even
Gagauzia.