Saturday, July 5 2014

 

 Ukraine has stirred up the layer of the old
problems accumulated between the world force centers. Today they have been seriously
discussing a problem of a unique border running through its territory and of
the geo-political split between the West and Russia. What are these borders?

 

 

 

 New processes have been developing at the
territory of the former USSR,
within the frames of which some republics understand the statements by the
Russian leaders "concerned about the problems of the Russian-language
population in other countries", of the 
so-called "big Russian world", like a warning. On the one
hand, it is normal that Moscow
is concerned about these problems. But on the other hand, how much Russia
may support these communities of the "Russian world". The problem
goes out of the CIS frames. There are 1,5 million Russian-language population
living in Israel.
However, this does not at all mean that Russia
may suddenly be concerned about the problems of the Russian-language population
of Israel.
Fortunately, Moscow does not think about it, and I hope Russia will never do
that  Ukraine has risen many old problems
accumulated between the world force centers, and it is hard to predict how
further events will develop in Ukraine, and between Russia, Ukraine, the USA,
Europe and other CIS countries. I can only say that the events in Ukraine have
stirred up all the problems between the above mentioned countries. Moreover,
the attitude of the USA
and EU to this issue is absolutely different. If the events in Ukraine directly concern Europe, they concern
the USA
indirectly.  Just for this reason, unlike
the Europeans, the Americans are more categorical in their statements and
requirements.

 

I think that
in that case Israel’s
answer will be short…

 

 

 The time will come when the peoples of Russia and Ukraine will think not about their
difference but equality. A new word expression appeared today <Ukraine has lost the Crimea, and Russia -Ukraine>. This word expression
really reflects  the situation and the
short-tern prospect. I have never seen such a true information war at all the
levels, and in mass media first of all. I think no mass media as such have
remained in Ukraine and Russia.
They have quickly turned into the propaganda bodies. 

 I
have got an impression that today people have simply turned into zombie by this
multi-level propaganda. And the situation will not recover, until these people
themselves will not understand that they can make friends. By the way, today Georgia and Russia have been gradually
establishing relations, though after the war 08.08.08.  it was practically impossible. I think that
the time will also come when the peoples of Russia
and Ukraine
will think not about their difference but equality. Not everything is simple
there. As for the purely political reaction of the EU at the events in Central Europe, here we have a strict system of dual
standards.

 

Do you agree
to the viewpoint that the USA
and Russia
have again found themselves in a “cold war”?

 

  The Americans and the Russians have called the
relations establishing between them for the last years as "restart".
But at the symbolic button they accidentally wrote the word
"overload", and actually just the overloading has taken place. Today
the cold war again started between these countries. The relations level being
established today between Russia,
the EU and the USA
is like a new cold war. Moreover, some people say even about the danger of the
third world war. For this reason, today there is no smile in the relations
between the USA and Russia,
and I think they will not smile to each other for a long period of time. Both
parties may be blamed for that. I  think
that all the ideas of President Barack Obama, for which he was given the Nobel
Prize, were not brought to life. His only merit is withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.
As for the situation in Ukraine,
the expert thinks that Obama's administration has been acting not so much
far-sightedly, as it is better to talk than to threat with sanctions and weapon.

 

And what
about Putin?  

  

Today's
Vladimir Putin differs very much from Putin which came at the beginning of the
2000s. When he appointed Medvedev as a premier, the conception of his foreign
policy sharply changed, to be correct, its paradigm changed. And the empire
statements often voiced by him for the last period of time, will unavoidably
lead to bigger changes. I think that the radicals' wing in his surrounding and
in the Russian policy strongly pushes him to that. Today this wing says about
the necessity of bringing Russian troops into Ukraine, which is very much dangerous.
Taking into consideration the fact that the leadership of NATO seems to be
eager of that, it is a very much dangerous trend. The talks that the third
world war will save the world economy from a theoretical research has
transformed into a theory which may be implemented in practice. I hope that the
radical wing of the Russian policy will not gain a victory, but he does not
want to predict further development of the situation conditioned by the latest
trends in the global politics. Nevertheless, one thing may be said for sure -
"the cold war" period has again become reality today.  

In its aspiration
“to gather the Russian lands” Moscow
has been imposing pressure upon the potential participants in its Eurasian
projects. What does it hinder Russia to economic levers for raising of the true
interests of the South Caucasus states, including Azerbaijan , in the Eurasian
Economic Union? I mean, for instance, unblocking of the Abkhazian sector of the
railway.

 

I have got
an impression that by every attempt of the Russians to restore any
commonwealth, not the USSR,
which is unreal, less beneficiary countries remain. So, I think that such an
approach is wrong. The economic tie of the countries with Russia is the best scenario for
integration. And although it is not so much modern in Armenia, I treat Armenia's joining the Customs Union
rather calmly. By the way, Israel
seriously revises the idea of cooperation with Eurasian Union. I  think that in Armenia
as well as in Ukraine
this issue is very much politicized. 
Whereas, in Israel
only big businessmen and governmental structures were aware of signing the
Association Agreement with the EU, all the rest population were not interested
in this issue at all.

 

Maybe,
because there was not an opposite pole to pull Israel to its side?

 

Yes, of
course. At present we have been cooperating with Eurasian structures, but the
EU does not even try to say that having an Association agreement with the EU, Israel should
not have similar economic relations with another structure. So, economy is the
best machinery for being interested in integration. At the same time, I am not
sure that if Moscow
decides to involve an issue of unblocking of the Abkhazian sector of the
railway in its integration machinery, it will be easily resolved, as it is not
an economic problem. I am confident that when Georgia revises the problem of
letting trains run through the territory which it thinks is an occupied one, it
is not an economy any more but politics. In this context, I  think that it is very much possible that the
problem of the Abkhazian railway may be resolved only grounding on the economy
but not politics. Incidentally, the Georgians have several times come to that.
However, the politics always became an obstacle.

And what about Israel?  

 

 In general, taking into account the level of
relations between Armenia
and its natural partner Iran,
Israel
is quite alert to the idea of restoration of the North-South communications. I
think that opening of the Abkhazian sector of the railway would extend the
economic ties of Armenia
much. If Russia
took the issue of other CIS countries' participation in its economic projects
on the basis of equal partnership, it would gain much more, at least, it would
not lose the friends which it loses today. I  think that Kazakhstan,
taking into consideration the fact that numerous Russian-language people have
been living at its territory, should worry that one day, when its relations
with Russia worsen, Russia may take
this trump card. I think that the trend of readiness of the Kremlin to
protect  the "Big Russian
world" is dangerous for Russia,
first of all. And one should take it very much carefully. Any country does not
have friends forever, there are only everlasting interests. What is happening
today between Russia and Armenia may be explained just by coincidence of
economic and in a certain sense regional interests of Russia with the interests of Armenia.