Tuesday, July 7 2015 13:49

The results of the EaP Summit in Riga on May 21-22 dispelled Georgia's hopes for visa cancellation with EU. What should Tbilisi expect from the pro-European policy basing on the 30-point final declaration of the Riga Summit?

It is difficult to say how deep is our disappointment at the EaP Summit in Riga. Yet, the visa cancellation for Georgia is still on agenda of the talks with the EU. Furthermore, Georgia does hope to receive visa free regime with the EU within the coming two years. Most importantly, in Georgia they have a strategic vision of the country they want to build in future. And that vision is on the way to Europe. The situation with the preferential treatment under DCFTA is much complicated. I think it is early to speak of preferential treatment, unlike problems, which Georgia is likely to face much sooner. Georgia will need to carry out economic reforms that may prove rather costly. Georgia, unlike Armenia, has signed the Association Agreement with the EU. Although many think it was a symbolic deal, but it is a way to the visa cancellation that will enable Georgia to join the European trade regime. This is the most important thing, while all the other things will expect from EU are unreasonably high. 

 Armenia’s EEU membership prompted the need to launch new negotiations between Brussels and Yerevan to reconsider the legal format of relations mentioned in the final Declaration of the Eastern Partnership Summit in Riga? In this light, do you think the European prospects of Armenia and Georgia are so different? 

Georgia, unlike Armenia, has signed the Association Agreement with the EU. Although many think it was a symbolic deal, but it is a way to the visa cancellation that will enable Georgia to join the European trade regime. This is the most important thing, while all the other things will expect from EU are unreasonably high. 

 

Has Georgia received any security guarantees on its way to NATO that Armenia and Azerbaijan haven’t?

Georgia has no feeling of security in respect of its aspiration to join NATO. It is conditioned by the lack of alternative. Of course, he says, Georgia can surrender to Russia. That, however, will be taken in Georgia as renouncing sovereignty. 

What do you think has made Georgians feel that disappointed at Europe?  

Russia's propaganda and the increased "soft power" in Georgia are among the main factors that made the country feel disappointment at the European integration. The previous authorities in Georgia were pro-Western, unlike the incumbent ones.  Nevertheless, the key factor that made many Georgians feel skeptical about Europe is the Ukrainian crisis. Georgians say Europe demonstrated weakness and uncertainty in that crisis, unlike the determined and consistent actions of Putin. This is what damages Europe's image in the eyes of many in Georgia.

 The values propagated by the Georgian Orthodox Church, which has a big influence in the country, run contrary to the values propagated in Europe. Will that difference lead to contradictions in Georgia’s pro-European line sooner or later? 

The mixed response of the Georgian Orthodox Church to the pro-European policy of the Government has already led to certain contradictions in the country's foreign policy line. Patriarch Ilia II has officially supported the pro-European orientation for several times, but various groups of the Church hierarchy see certain danger in Europe for the Georgian society's traditions and culture. I should say that many see the Georgian Orthodox Church as Russia's ally and 'soft power' policy conductor in Georgia. In this light, the expert says, the anti-European, anti-western sentiments have certainly increased in Georgia over the last years. The conductors of that line often appeal to the common religious values with Russia. In addition, at the Georgian Church there are also those who support the westward policies. It is normal - no country of the Eastern Europe has supported the European integration by 100%.

NATO has been recently increasing its military presence in the countries of Eastern Europe bordering with Russia, first of all. How will Tbilisi respond to the Alliance’s offer to deploy more forces in Georgia?  

NATO is augmenting its potential only in Eastern Partnership countries - its members.  Georgia is not an Alliance member yet; it is still a candidate-country. Therefore, I believe, we will gladly accept the U.S. offer to host their military objects and forces. However, it is not expected yet. Georgia hosts only one NATO training-center. Though this center is not to be considered as USA's military presence in Georgia, it can be claimed to be a political signal that confirms most Georgians' expectations on the country's soon accession to the NATO. 

 

Moscow punished Georgia for its westward policy by recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Has the Kremlin any commensurate levers of pressure on Tbilisi today?

Russia no longer had the levers of pressure on Georgia it had in 2008. There are economic levers now, as the Georgian agricultural products are back to the Russian market thanks to the new government.  In the short-term outlook it is good, indeed, but in the long-term outlook, it gave Russia a lever of pressure on Georgia. One beautiful day Russia may close the market for us. Look at Ukraine, everything may turn into a lever of pressure for Russia. There are already views that it is necessary to unite the Georgian territories adjacent to South Ossetia to the latter, due to some “historical” reasons. Hence, everything can be used against Georgia. In case of a relevant political will, Russia will always find the reasons to attack Georgia. Today, with his actions in Ukraine, Putin tries to reveal the level of his impunity. It is good that Georgia fell to the background in the list of Putin’s priorities. By the way, we have been successfully cooperating with Russia in the Pankisi Gorge since the times when the president was Saakashvili. This cooperation is based on the common fight against terrorism.

Do you see any danger for Georgia’s national security in the country’s multi-nation population?

 Everything can be turned into a threat.

I am speaking about Kvemo-Kartli and Samtskhe-Javakheti regions…

Naturally, our northern neighbor regularly frightens us with that. They regularly promise to organize something in Javakheti. I think it is not that easy. Theoretically, it is possible, indeed, but in case of Georgia’s reasonable, rational policy, it should not happen. Hence, I see no threat to the national security of Georgia from the given two regions.

 Do you think the leadership of Armenia and Georgia will continue cooperating therein?

 I am sure that the countries have cooperated therein and, I hope, they will continue doing so..