Monday, April 1 2024 14:45

ArmInfo.The weak electoral prospects of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can seriously  change Moscow's geopolitics in Eastern Europe and have a tangible impact on the configuration of the partnership between Moscow and Beijing, says orientalist-sinologist Nikolai Vavilov.

According to the expert, Turkey is the only country that can  significantly change the course of the Special Military Operation  (SMO- an official term used by the Russian government, ed. note) if   it enters hostilities as a direct participant.

Vavilov is confident that the figure of Erdogan, as well as possible  agreements between Moscow and Beijing which restrain Ankara, do not  allow Turkey to act completely in the interests of the West.

"Turkey's economic problems, if a weak successor to Erdogan is  elected in 2028 or the pro-American opposition comes to power, will  make the country either maximally pro-Western when entering the war,  or put it on the brink of civil war.

And the  coming to power of conditional Gulenists or their supporters  will maximally activate the track of support for separatism in  Chinese Xinjiang, Islamism with Turkic characteristics in Central  Asia and will make it a potential place for starting a new big war in  the post-Soviet space," Vavilov believes.

In this vein, the expert states that Turkey-2028 is becoming a common  problem for Russia and China, for which there is simply no clear  solution.

"Such weakness of the "Erdogan party" forces him to look for  solutions in Washington. But given his conditionally loyal position  to Moscow and anti-Israel position, the Democrats of Washington will  not accept him.

Russia and China will have to prepare for an all-out war or a civil  war scenario in Turkey. The scenario will be more clear after the US  presidential elections," the orientalist assures.  He also believes  that the operation in Taiwan is becoming difficult at the same time  as a large hybrid war in Central Asia. The expert added that after  2028, Russia and China will have a joint front from the Baltic states  to Japan.

"For China, the chances of carrying out an operation in Taiwan in the  event of a war breaking out in Central Asia and Turkey's increased  support for an operation in Eastern Europe, are decreasing; the risks  of defeat are growing. It is beneficial for China to start the  operation from 2025 to 2027, and get a limited victory in it.

China, distracted by Central Asia, becomes an easier rival for Japan  and South Korea and also increases their involvement in the operation  against China in Taiwan," Vavilov noted, adding that the current  elections in Turkey are changing the entire situation in Eurasia.

On Sunday, March 31, the voting for the elections of the heads of  municipalities ended in Turkey. There were more than 61 million  registered voters in the country, for whom 206,845 polling stations  were open.  Candidates from 34 political parties took part in the  elections, including the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP)  led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as well as independent  candidates.

According to the latest data from the state television channel TRT,  which is authorized to announce voting results, 91.34% of protocols  from polling stations have been processed. The main opposition  Republican People's Party receives 37.35% of the votes in municipal  elections, the ruling AKP - 35.75%. For the first time in recent  decades, the opposition won in all major cities of the republic,  including Adana, Ankara, Antalya, Bursa, Izmir, and Istanbul.  According to the Sozju TV channel, the ruling party's defeat in the  elections was crushing.