ArmInfo. In an interview with Caucasus Watch, former state minister of Artsakh Ruben Vardanyan spoke of three scenarios of resolving the crisis round Artsakh
In response to a question as to where he sees Karabakh 20 years from now, Mr Vardanyan said:
"We have established a movement that supports the 'Artsakh 2035 Vision.' Of course, nothing will come easily. We aim to live in our own homeland, and there are several potential scenarios to achieve this goal. It is an arduous journey, replete with obstacles, but we draw inspiration from world history and analogous cases that demonstrate such movements can persist for decades. We are prepared to undertake this path with ample determination and resilience.
"Our vision is to defend our homeland. From our side, I see a great determination for people to stay and take a stand. A change in the Armenian government could bring a greater political alignment between Armenia and Artsakh. There may also be greater involvement by international actors. Therefore, the first scenario we are considering as quite possible for the next 30-to-50 years is status quo maintenance.
"This would be maintained by both sides: on the one hand, I do not see how the local population can accept to live as an Azerbaijani ethnic minority; on the other hand, a subdued Artsakh - that would wish to unite with Armenia - is a useful trigger of 'perpetual national emergency' that is convenient for the Aliyev regime. Nevertheless, the dream for unification continues to persist. If these assumptions hold, the new normal will be periods of conflict with intervals of relative stability. We will maintain the status quo, dynamically."
The second scenarios is, according to Mr Vardanyan, the one involving the satellite-like integration of Artsakh into Russia.
Different circles envision an alternative scenario that goes beyond maintaining the status quo -Russia is the West's adversary today and that would affect how the West sees Artsakh in this scenario. But we are talking about 20 years from now. Do we believe that Russia will remain an adversary to the West?
"A third scenario entails an 'international mandate' or intervention by external powers, providing certain security guarantees. South Caucusus was always viewed by the West and the rest as Russia's domain. West delegated South Caucuses security to Russia. It could be changing now. Iran is highly likely to move in to balance Azerbaijani-Israeli alliance in the region. Reminding you, Iran has better relations today with Ankara (NATO member) than with Baku. If Iran becomes a security guarantor in the Caucasus. How would the West react to that?
"However, it's crucial for people to recognize that the future rests in our hands. We cannot merely stand by and debate others' scenarios; we must formulate our own plan and narrative. I believe assuming responsibility and actively shaping our future is paramount. Important note. Armenia and Artsakh might be young democracies, but they are still democracies sandwiched between mighty Turkey, Azerbaijan, Russia and Iran. I do not see Armenians being subjected to limitations of their human rights and freedoms willingly or submit to power without putting up dignified resistance.
"But it is very important for people to realize that the future is in their hands. And with their own actions, they can have an impact on these scenarios; indeed, they can insist on and achieve the implementation of their own scenario," Mr Vardanyan said.
Asked whether he sees three scenarios: status quo maintenance with a view to eventual unification with Armenia, or Russian satellisation, or an international mandate, presumably like the status of Palestine before the establishment of the State of Israel, Mr Vardanyan answer in the affirmative.
Although the situation is undoubtedly very challenging, Mr Vardanyan does not think that Azerbaijan is preparing to initiate another large-scale military operation after Autumn 2020.
"Having said that, we need to understand that Azerbaijan is shooting civilians who work in the fields on a daily basis. Furthermore, they tend to prefer small-scale local operations, which help maintain a sense of tension and fear among the people regarding potential military actions.
"The blockade is exerting both humanitarian and economic impacts. The military threat appears intended to affect us psychologically. However, I am not convinced that they are inclined towards an aggressive scenario. They employ various tactics to subdue us, waging a hybrid war on multiple fronts- informational, psychological, moral, economic, and involving numerous other factors. They use the humanitarian crisis as a weapon to reach political goals. The food issue is weaponized and used against us," he said.
"Those who believe that Azerbaijan only desires Nagorno-Karabakh are gravely mistaken; their recent aggressive actions towards Armenia proper have demonstrated the opposite. Aliyev is deeply convinced that he will always remain unpunished, leading him to resort to the use of force or threats of force. On a daily basis, their media prepares the groundwork for this. Their insatiable appetite for more will eventually turn against them, sooner or later," Mr Vardanyan said.
The full interview is available here: https://caucasuswatch.de/en/interviews/ruben-vardanyan-no-matter- what-there-will-be-resistance.html