Tuesday, April 12 2022 11:38

ArmInfo.Tectonic geopolitical shifts are already taking place in the South Caucasus at this stage. Independent political analyst Saro Saroyan expressed a similar  opinion to ArmInfo.

"The first sign, evidence of this process is the very fact and the  results of the Brussels meeting of Michel - Pashinyan - Aliyev. I  could say that under the European umbrella, the process of ousting  Russia from the OSCE Minsk Group is taking place, which became  obvious precisely as a result of the Brussels meeting of the leaders  of the EU, Armenia and Azerbaijan. In this sense, it is rather  difficult to disagree, at least with the essence of the assessments  of the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry regarding what is  happening," he noted.

On April 8, at a briefing with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat  Mirzoyan in Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that  he did not know what the fate of the OSCE Minsk Group Troika would  be, citing the position of the United States and France as the  reason. "Our French and American partners ( so-called partners in  this group), in a Russophobic frenzy and in an effort to cancel  everything related to the Russian Federation, said that they would  not communicate with us in that format. This is their right. If they  are ready to sacrifice their interests in the settlement in Karabakh  and in the Transcaucasus as a whole, then this is their choice," he  said.

The analyst believes that as a result of geopolitical tectonic shifts  in the region, a new balance of power has been formed in the South  Caucasus, which differs significantly from the balance formed as a  result of Azerbaijan's 44-day aggression against Artsakh and Armenia.   In his opinion, this is evidenced by the fact that the West no longer  invites, but simply calls Pashinyan and Aliyev to Brussels, thus  demonstrating its capabilities in the field of completely new  geopolitical realities. Having previously outlined certain red lines  for both of them.

In this light, the analyst recalled that in the period following the  44-day war, the activity of the West on the Caucasian track was  limited to the activities of French President Macron. However, the  latter, without a doubt, was not only supported, but also delegated  by the United States. And today, after Ukraine, the main  beneficiaries of the weakening of the Russian Federation are the  countries of Eastern Europe. This process is coordinated by the EU  leadership, which is essentially interested in weakening Russian  influence not only in the South Caucasus, but also anywhere in the  world.  

"I am convinced that the Russia  is already leaving the South  Caucasus. So far, few people realize this, but this process has  already taken root. At the same time, Moscow, no doubt, intends to  return. This is the reason for Lavrov's statements, trying to shift  responsibility for what is happening on anyone, including Armenia.   This is the reason for his words regarding the "choice of Armenia".   Moscow needs to take a position that will allow it to avoid the  consequences of its own future withdrawal from the South Caucasus,  and, accordingly will ensure the prospects of returning," the analyst  summed up.