ArmInfo. In recent weeks, we have been witnessing the transformation of the war in Syria into an interstate conflict between Syria and Turkey. Editor-in-Chief of the Russia in Global Affairs journal,Research Director of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club Fyodor Lukyanov expressed this opinion to ArmInfo.
"It's clear that quite serious players are behind Syria and Turkey, respectively, represented by Russia and NATO. The confrontation around Idlib seems to be the peak of the war in Syria. And this confrontation was quite expected, given the serious military presence accumulated in this region of Syria after the Astana accords. In principle, the explosion of the situation was expectedly predictable, first of all, given the inability of Ankara to control all the groups around Idlib, "he stressed.
According to Lukyanov, the Astana accords were nullified by Turkish politics in the Middle East. The latter was aimed at expanding the zones of influence of Turkey, as well as territorial acquisitions in the event of the fall of the Syrian government. As a result, the current events in Idlib are of fundamental importance both for the Syrian government, and for Ankara and Moscow. In this light, it is not necessary to expect any concessions, according to his forecasts.
Among the negative consequences of the war in Syria for Turkey, the analyst mentions not only the strengthening of the Kurdish factor, but also migration from Syria, which has become a serious economic problem for the Turks. According to him, the situation is aggravated by Erdogan's desire to maintain power within Turkey. In turn, Turkey's relations with the West, primarily with the United States, are determined by its actions on the Middle East track. "It is noteworthy that Ankara, constantly demonstrating its own independence to the West as an independent geopolitical player, after the tensions in Idlib, immediately turned to NATO for help.
It is clear that this situation today determines the content and prospects of the common Russian-Turkish agenda. Accordingly, saving everyone joint projects is possible only through negotiations around Idlib. Astana-2 will be a confirmation of the success of Russian politics. A direct military clash between Russia and Turkey will undermine all dividends previously obtained through Russian intervention," Lukyanov summed up .