ArmInfo.Today's escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh was not an accident, the behavior of Azerbaijan in recent times gave reason to believe that something like this could happen. The Director of the Caucasus Institute (Yerevan) Alexander Iskandaryan expressed this opinion in an interview with Ukraine.ru.
According to him, everything is really very serious. Stepanakert has not been bombed for 26 years since the end of the war in 1994. There were, of course, tensions and escalations, including large ones (in 2014, 2016 and in July 2019). But let me stress once again, artillery strikes were not fired on cities and the capita for quite a long time.
Iskandaryan avoided to predict whether the war would develop into large-scale actions on the ground, but there is every reason for responding appropriately.
In his opinion, there was no surprise factor. The behavior of Azerbaijan for several weeks gave reason to think that something like this could happen. It was said in Baku that it was pointless to negotiate, that it was necessary to solve the problems by military means, and a few days ago there were reports about reservists and about the mobilization of private cars with a body from people, which could be used for military purposes.
It started in the morning, at about 7:00am. Moreover, just a few minutes later, the correspondent of the Turkish state TV channel TRT HABER began working there. That is, he arrived there in advance, and in the last hours this information is constantly on the Turkish news. This suggests that everything was prepared in advance. Events of this magnitude cannot be accidental.
Speaking about concrete benefits that Azerbaijan wants to derive from this aggravation, Iskandaryan noted that one should speak not about Azerbaijan, but about the regime. There are many problems in Azerbaijan itself. The July attempt to aggravate the situation directly on the very border with Armenia ended in failure, a general was killed, a fairly large number of drones were shot down, including an Israeli-made drone, which had not been shot down before. There is also some pressure inside Azerbaijan now, dissatisfaction, frustration. "I think this is a way of responding to this situation," the political scientist noted. "But, of course, it is difficult to speak about this with proof, because Azerbaijan has a rather specific closed regime. The situation in the country can only be investigated using secondary algorithms, there is practically no media there. Now they have turned off almost the entire Internet. YouTube is disabled there, Facebook is disabled there, Tik Tok is disabled there so that people cannot give each other real information. That is, it is difficult for me to judge what is happening in the Azerbaijani elites. But there is no doubt that something quite important is happening there, "Iskandaryan said.
Speaking about the role of the CSTO and what exactly should happen so that the alliance considers providing military assistance to Armenia, the political scientist noted that, firstly, what is happening now is happening on the border of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and Azerbaijan. And not on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Artsakh is not a member of the CSTO. In order to receive assistance, at least a request from Armenia is needed. At the moment there is no such thing yet. In order to react to this, you must at least have an idea of how the situation will develop. In addition, contacts are needed, although I am sure they are. In any case, all this takes some time.
Speaking about the peacekeeping role of Russia in the conflict, given that Armenia is its ally, and Azerbaijan is an equally important partner, the political scientist noted that the point is not even that Armenia is an ally of Russia. Russia is one of the three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, along with France and the United States. It is clear that Russia plays an important role in this matter simply because it is geographically closer and has many more tools to influence the parties to the conflict. "Usually in such cases some kind of diplomatic mechanisms are involved, very often closed ones. This will be done. Is there anything more needed? I repeat, it depends on how the situation will develop,> Iskandaryan stressed