The tensions in the Karabakh conflict zone may grow into large-scale military actions in August, Vladimir Yevseev, Head of Caucasus Department of the Moscow-based CIS Institute, told reporters in Yerevan on May 7.
He said the upsurge in tensions on the line of contact of the Artsakh and Azerbaijani armed forces is already evident. He said military actions may resume as the incidents on the line of contact have intensified, the tactics of the armed clashes has changed, and sabotage attempts and use of new types of weapons have become frequent.
"It is necessary to pull back the snipers and heavy weapons from the line of contact. To avoid war, the sides must start negotiating for withdrawal of all types of weapons above 120mm. If they manage to agree, the tension will decrease. However, it is nearly impossible now," Yevseev said.
The expert says such developments are not in favor of Russia, Turkey, or Iran, as Ankara and Moscow will have to intervene, which, will lead to a regional war. Yevseev is sure that Baku deliberately increases the tension to concentrate the attention of the world community on that conflict. In addition, he said, Azerbaijani leadership fears that it will no longer be able to continue the arms race amid the falling oil prices. "Furthermore, Baku seeks to change the format of the OSCE Minsk Group," Yevseev said.
He is sure that the relatively passive ceasefire breaches by Azerbaijan on the day of the parliamentary elections in Artsakh, as well as on April 24, Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day, is the credit of the Armenian party that operatively received intelligence data and took adequate measures.