Azerbaijan's new attack on Artsakh is a matter of time only, Richard Giragosian, the head of the Center for Regional Studies, told RFE/RL Armenian Service.
He believes that Azerbaijan's build-up along the Line of Contact means that Baku plans a new attempt to break the status quo within the coming days or weeks.
Giragosian is sure that no one and nothing can hold Azerbaijan from launching a new aggression, considering that Baku assess the results of the recent aggression as a victory. It is for the first time in 21 years that Azerbaijan managed to take a territory and keep it at least temporarily. However, Richard Giragosian does not think that the new aggression will be as heavy as the one unleashed in April, as Azerbaijani armed forces are not prepared and armed enough to launch such a serious offensive.
Nevertheless, the analyst anticipates attacks in the north and south of the Line of Contact with a goal of causing damage and targeting the civilian population.
Giragosian is sure that the tactics of the world community no longer works. In fact, the real danger for Armenia does not come from Azerbaijan. The real danger is that U.S. and France are insufficiently involved in the activity of the Minsk Group, while Russia has betrayed Armenia.
As for Turkey, the analyst does not think that it may directly interfere in case of a new escalation in Karabakh, since there are Russian troops on the borders of Armenia and Turkey is a NATO member.