NOT SHELLS AND BOMBS ARE CALLED TO DETERMINE THE SITUATION IN OUR REGION

Interview of ex-speaker of RA Parliament, leader of "Orinats Yerkir" party, Artur Baghdasaryan, to ArmInfo News Agency

Mr. Baghdasaryan, how do you appreciate the current processes in our region and what the behavioral line of Armenia must be as not to be an outsider of the common way of South Caucasus development, if this way actually exists?

I may assure that the current geopolitical processes and their development tendencies bode nothing well to Armenia in view of an extremely initiative-free foreign political policy, which is carried out in our country. We have to understand that the world political centers do not intend to bother themselves with our cares, they are waiting for initiatives and activity from us, by means of which we could talk to the foreign world. Actually, not shells and bombs but a political will and new competitive ideas are called today to determine the situation in our region as a determinant. It means that we should not give the priority in our policy to confrontation, but to trend towards fulfillment of a healthy competitive struggle. And so, we have to sooner realize that our neighbors are our rivals but not enemies. It is important in so far as the overwhelming majority of the countries of the region, we are in, has a clearly expressed task of integration into the European structures, into a civilized family. They do go in this direction. Meanwhile, we isolate ourselves instead of seeking for the new approaches with respect to the two important players, Turkey and Azerbaijan. We have to understand that if Turkey strives today after the European Union, we, showing a flexibility, have to sit at the Table of negotiations with Turks and try to find mutually acceptable decisions. And what is of most importance, and we see it well, the Turkish train has already started and keeps on moving towards Europe. The train moves heavily, with artificial barriers on the way, but it moves. That's why we should not prevent each other from developing by putting spokes in the wheels of the European locomotive but, on the contrary, should try to do out best to put our locomotive on this track.

Do you think it will be welcomed in Europe with an orchestra?

I think Armenia is able to play a key role in this integration process. Why? Because, being a country, which has extremely strained relations with the two of its four neighbors, Armenia is able to show to the world its competitiveness based on the values of democratic society, having displayed a foresight and diplomatic tolerance. We have no oil, we are not a country with 60 million population. That's why we should use the chance we have - the chance to appear in the world as a freely developing and truly democratic state. As regards the sore subject if our relations with neighbors, healthy compromise is certainly more important and useful that stubborn head-on enmity. We should understand that the key geopolitical processes developing in the region are incompatible with our current policy.

After all, the major document, a so-called , is signed with the European Union within the frames of a new neighborhood policy.

Yes, on a paper, but we have to do the best, in a real life as not to become an outsider, since Armenia remains aside of the major regional economic programs. Those separating lines, which are created today in the region, are not advantageous to our country. It's only a one purely political argument to be hardly argued since the facts are on hand. There are other arguments here as well if consider, for example, the situation and the processes developing around Iran and in Iraq, if take into account the possibility of forming the new states in this region. Armenia, as a state, can certainly play here a definite role, including the institutional one, being invited to discuss these issues. However, to be evaluated as a useful partner, we have to refuse of building a close society based on a fear, to refuse of the democracy imitation and to seriously start forming a true democracy in the country based upon the key rights and freedoms of citizens. This is already a domestic argument to the aforesaid.

Let's go back to the . Once someone said: . You urge not to be late but, having jumped on a loop step, we actually refuse of that of no small importance what is received to call a guaranteed security system. If discount a stillborn divorce CIS, then, probably, one should not discount Russia as a partner and the CSTO it has created?

Nothing should be discounted, especially Russia as a partner and a friendly country for us, as well as the CSTO as a security system, until regulation of our relations with neighbors. I am far from such ideas, however, I am sure and I have openly told about it to my Russian counterpart- politicians who, by the way, understand me, that the democracy is best security factor in XXI century. The matter concerns security achievement by the society democratization. I do not accept a marginal approach and object to oppose the CSTO and NATO. It is, at least, incompetent to consider the North-Atlantic alliance as a military unit only. The NATO has two constituents, a military and political. My position is to maximum bring together the relations of Armenia with the NATO's political component, that will strengthen both our Army and our political and civil Institutes.

It is difficult today to tell about the policy change since there is no policy, we have not yet found where we are and where we go. We have to clarify ourselves whether we join the "Russia- Belarus" union or we'll be the members of the western European club, maintaining at that the best and kindest relations with both Russia and Belarus. We will be able to build neither the security system nor the economic system until we understand what we want. Everything happens here per situation, abruptly, fragmentarily. One thing is necessary - we are doing this one today, another one - tomorrow.

Is it a hint at a so-called complementarism in the country's foreign policy?

Complementarism is mainly a derivation from suspense of the Karabakh problem. This foreign political thesis has proved itself, it played a definite favorable role, however, it started to become outdated and no one in the world perceives it seriously today. The critical mass of complementarism is exhausted, he said and added it is necessary to seek for the new ideas concordant with the situation and the time. Compromises in the Karabakh issues must be searched as well, the ex-speaker said. "The extreme ideas are unacceptable, since the future is always more important despite the hard way, passed by our people. For the same reason, the recognition of Genocide should not be a cornerstone of the foreign policy as well. Well, let's suppose some countries more recognize the Genocide. What is next? We bow to the memory of the Genocide victims, this fact is unofficially recognized by the whole world community. But what we receive, carrying it as a standard over the head? A moral satisfaction? And where is the real policy then? The Genocide issue can be only a component of the foreign policy to be elaborated. We have to build our foreign policy counting on the future, for the sake of our children. Look, the Germans had forced the whole Europe to its knees some 60 years ago, killed the millions of people, destroyed London by bombing, razed Warsaw to the ground. But now the Great Britain, France and Germany are building the European Union and Poland has also joined them. This is an example of a real policy based on democracy. Today, Turkey makes its way towards Europe and we also have to go there and talk to it.

I would like to especially note that it is normal when nationalistic ideas exist in our society, it is normal for a healthy society. However, these ideas should not dominate since they start to prevail, the society falls into an atmosphere of extremism, with elements and properties, typical for such a society.

Georgia straightly aims at NATO. But along with it, participating in all the regional energy and transport projects, it will soon assure itself a maximum possible discretion from Russia. However, all these projects pass over Armenia and if a railway plan of Kars- Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi is implemented, the circle will close in fact. Whether you are anxious about such a prospect?

Very much. Implementation of this project will seriously affect the regional situation. The forecasts may be very unfavorable is consider such a factor as Javakhk. However, Georgia today already receives great means from oil transit by Baku-Jeihan pipeline. Azerbaijan increases the economic power, attracts great investments, and only in the oil-gas sector, while our newspaper editors in Armenia go on a forced leave through a shortage of printing paper. A paradox, when the country depends on conditions in the only Ukrainian harborage. We should understand that without worthy throwing off the burden of serious problems with neighbors, the only regional economic market will be actually inaccessible for us. The whole civilized world community considers the South Caucasus as a single whole. If we can become its constituent part, be sure, there will be no question of building a new economically ineffective railway communication passing over Armenia. There our state interest lies in and the country's future must be built on its basis.

What's the role of statements concerning the country's foreign policy in your resignation?

I would like to remind once more that we had disagreements on three key directions of both the foreign and home policy. We have already talked of the first one. It is impossible to long sit on several swinging chairs simultaneously. The sooner we clarify our foreign political priorities, the faster and more we'll win. The second principal disagreement concerned the ways of corruption- fight. One should be naive to think there are places in the world where this phenomenon is absent, however, the corruption has become a system in our small country. This system crisis eats up all the healthy sprouts in our political and economic field. We have always talked of these phenomena. For example, what is the purpose of privatization? It is an achievement of efficient management based on a thesis that an owner is the a better manager than the state. We should solve the problem of efficient management and economic reproduction though privatization. We are not solving these problems now since privatization has become a means of personal enrichment only.

Moreover, a means of short-term enrichment.

Quite right. If the task is incorrectly set, quite another result is received as a consequence. The initial target setting is that the privatization process, as a result, comes to enabling the monopolistic structures and persons to receive super-profits.

The third disagreement concerned the issue of the country's democratization and construction of an open society. Imitation of democratic processes and the democratic processes themselves are quite different things. We follow an ostrich policy, having buried our heads in a sand, and we think no one see us and notice our "pranks". However, the democratic countries, our partners, see the imitation of democratic processes in our country. Well, perhaps, we are in a better condition than, for example, Azerbaijan, from the viewpoint of democracy development, but we forget that Armenia and Azerbaijan are considered in different planes. Azerbaijan is often overlooked and not due to the oil factor, due to the political and economic role of this country in the region, as well as taking into account the factors of Iran, Turkey and GUAM, which since becomes not so great but still a factor. Armenia does not have such "privileges". We cannot compare us with Azerbaijan in all this. We have no other way under these conditions but to create an open society. Legitimacy of authorities plays a topping role here, the human rights and freedom of speech play a no less role. Under conditions when the judgments, passed in the country, are known in many cases in advance, when there are no free electronic Mass Media, when the economy market is not free and monopolized, one does not have to seek for odd trumps.

One thing more. If someone thinks it is easy to refuse of the Parliament speaker's post, he is mistaken. However, I've done it and the "Orinats Yerkir" party supported me for the sake of future reforms since, being at a power, we, the party members, made more and more sure that we deal with deep system processes and not with a transient period waste. We tried to perceive the power as a chance to reform the public institutes, a necessity to change the people's life. That's why, we received many strikes when leaving the power: we faced treachery and loss of friends and experienced different kinds of pressure. However, having overcome this trial, we underwent a self-purification process, we strengthened and have become one of the most capable and organized political forces. We shall fight for our ideas and their realization. We are ready to do it openly and not on the quiet like some others.

Informal relations and informal public institutes are formed and root in Armenia. That is, we start to live rather by concepts than by Law. Some allegedly connect it with our mentality, our genetic inability of building a open civil society.

Mentality is of high importance, however it is stupid to impute everything to it since the power is, first of all, a responsibility. The power has a unique chance to create and form definite rough rules of play in the society and control their observance. The state should oblige the same oligarches to work under conditions of open market and not on the contrary. We have informal institutes - oligarches, for whom there are no Laws, they live by their own concepts and laws. The state gives kopecks to the Police and says: . The state official, having definite power controls, takes bribes to assure a better life for himself. And what will he do if the Chief-Minister looses millions in the Moscow "Crystal" casino? That is the hidden motive of everything what we so comfortably "shake off" to the national mentality. We have to stop. We need a political will to eliminate all this. If a foreign company blames today the Government member for bribe-taking at the rate of $3 mln, such a scandal in any other civilized country would become a reason for a serious open trial and would possibly cause a resignation of the whole Government. The examples are not so far: scandals in Hungry, Poland, Sweden, Italy, while we said and forgot: .

Your estimation of the oppositional field from the viewpoint of ideological basis.

There is no competition of ideas, a worthy rivalry in Armenia. There is a competition of interests - a private, personal, group. I think the opposition has a potential for unification and this process will take place irrespective of the fact if it happens before or after the Parliamentary elections. A problem of consolidation of parties is available in Armenia. Existence of 70 parties in the country with 2.5 mln population is an abnormal phenomenon. In my opinion, this points to deideologization of the political field. The matter concerns both a power camp and the oppositional environment. It is the time to recomprehend the political processes in the country. I am sure that Armenia will pass a qualitatively new development stage. We are neither Turkmenia nor Belarus. The Turkman has a choice between several hundreds of dollars per month, free gas, oil and obscurity. He chooses the first one. The Belarusian also chooses the first one, especially as the election spots of Lukashenko were built on a contrast of the life level in Belarus, and how do you think where? That's right, in Armenia! Just remember the slogan: choose or you will loose! The people of Armenia, though with another mentality, has even no election choice today.

What's the place of "Orinats Yerkir" in the alignment of oppositional political forces in the country?

We are a moderate oppositional force. The extremism is not acceptable for us in no sphere, neither an extreme liberalism in economy and an extreme-nationalism in policy. We are the carriers of a classic right-centrist ideology today. Several thousand new members join us every month. We total 83,000 people. Our party is liberal-democratic and it sees the country's development in a priority of achieving an economic competitiveness and in active regulation of the economic field by the state. You see, I am talking not of management but only of an efficient regulation by means of state institutes.

What are your forecasts concerning the coming elections and the new Parliament's staff? Whether the new financially-strong forces, which are actively gathering the electorate today, will not create a disbalance in the new Parliament, having the active ?

I have several possible scenarios on this account. The first scenario: the power will show a political will and will organize normal fir elections. The political players understand the importance of this scenario. The matter here concerns the normal and not ideal elections. The fulfillment of this scenario will lead the country by a quite another way. However, we do not see a political will available today for implementation of this version since the opposition is deprived of an opportunity to talk to the society because of the developed oligarchic system and a full control of the electronic Mass Media.

According to the second scenario, there can be great falsifications, which will inevitably cause social conflicts inside the society. You see, everyone understands that the President is leaving, having completed its term, and there is an opportunity to form a new power. If there are great falsifications, great collisions will be inevitable. Very different versions of the events development are possible, which will cause an extremely strained situation in the public- political life, the result of which is sad.

The third version: due to great money and administrative controls, an attempt will be made to imitate the democratic elections. This scenario also proves itself. Denis Corboy, a good friend of mine, a British political analyst, a Head of supervisory missions in many countries, had to tell me: . After Georgia, we are the only in CIS counties, except the Asian ones, the state of affairs in which will be controlled by the West with special responsibility. The Europe will not keep mum and not because it is so anxious about us, but based on its political interests. The imitation will not work. If there are no social collisions, the country will face serious reputation problems and the inner political and social tension will grow.

There is the fourth, optimistic scenario. The authorities will show a political will and will come to an agreement with the key players in the political field for conducting normal elections.

But you said we are already behind this scenario?

But this possibility still remains in some aspect. The first condition is to accept the Electoral Code by a political consensus. The second condition is a normal administration by the election process before elections, during and after them. The third condition is an efficient carrying-out of the election process for the people to see that the political forces are enabled to talk to the society, to bring their ideas and programs to the society. It is naive to think that the oligarches will not make falsifications. However, having this scenario, the authorities will not assume a liability for that. It warns that any violation will be severely punished. If you are an oligarch and you have stolen the ballot-box, you will be tried. In short, the power take the steps which are positively perceived by the society and it goes to the elections. They may be non-ideal but mainly fair. This scenario can be real since there is no other way out and there is still a time to change the situation.

If the power refuses of this version, mass protest actions, meetings may happen in the country before and after elections. Arrests are not ruled out either. However, one should remember that a new election Presidential race will start in a couple of months after the Parliamentary elections. There have been no such a situation in Armenia yet to be fraught with such a great public energy. The society will not stand such a permanent pressure if it is not deferred to and a destructive effect of spring may work both inside the country and outside it.

Emmanuil Mkrtchyan, ArmInfo,December 18, 2006