Yerevan must understand that CSTO is not for Armenia; it is for Central Asia. President Putin hinted at this in Dushanbe, simultaneously frightening the leaders of the Central Asian countries with the "Islamic State" and recommending them to rely on Russia, says Pavel E. Felgenhauer, a Russian expert.
"Armenia is included in the issues the CSTO is used for now. It is especially relevant considering that neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan want deployment of peacekeepers in their territories. Of course, Armenia is Russia's strategic ally. Moscow gave Yerevan security guarantees that have not been tested in practice. Theoretically, a new war over Karabakh is inevitable, but when it will happen is not known, though the latest surge of tensions may lead to it," he said.
According to Felgenhauer's data provided to Radio Liberty, Azerbaijan is more important partner for Russia than Armenia, given that Russia receives billions from sales of weapons to Azerbaijan. In this light, the expert thinks, "the co-called security guarantees" refer to Turkey only. In case of large-scale military actions in the region, Felgenhauer says, neither of the parties will achieve success, given the equal military potential of Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces. In other words, he says, this war may last quite long without any serious success unless a third party interferes in it. The conflicting parties are well aware of that, the Russian expert said.