Friday, June 5 2015 15:09

 Given the 20-year-long futile negotiations on Nagorno- Karabakh there will hardly be a clear-headed expert to optimistically forecast this issue. It is easier to predict 20 more years of breezy conversations, Zardusht Alizadeh, an independent Azerbaijani political analyst, one of the founders of the Popular Front of Azerbaijan, told in an interview to ArmInfo.

"By the data of Global Financial Integrity over the past 10 years Armenia has transferred 6.2 bln USD abroad, Georgia - 4.5 mln USD and Azerbaijan - 17 bln USD. In other words, the South Caucasian rich do not believe their countries have future. It is these antinational elites that conduct negotiations on peaceful settlement of the conflict due to which they have taken the government and stay in power. So far both presidents' statements have been leading to even a gorier war than the 1990s one", he noted. 
Alizadeh believes that in this light 1920s history will repeat itself  - back in the day Russia bolshevized all the three South Caucasian countries. This happened due to the Armenia and Azerbaijan's conflict over Karabakh. Russia, of course, took advantage of the situation. 

Given that both Armenia and Azerbaijan are dissatisfied with such "integration" and the fact that the authorities are playing their own game, only Armenian and Azerbaijani civil societies are the only ones to undo the noose knot on the two nations' necks.  

According to the expert, the vertical subjection in Azerbaijan comes down to the president appointing officials in each province. The appointed officials act with impunity doing whatever they want to the population to fatten their wallets, stifle freedom of thought, intimidate people and oblige their chiefs. That is why the Azerbaijani democrats fully support the concept of total decentralization of power. Said otherwise, Yerevan's dissent regarding the vertical subjection of Stepanakert to Baku.    
The expert believes that in this situation Nagorno Karabakh is quite likely to become the real democracy oasis in South Caucasus given that the EU has been long been willing to prove the global impact of its own example. He has also precluded military assault, given that Greater Karabakh is to become a demilitarize zone under the peace treaty. 
According to the expert, a would be Karabakh bank might significantly contribute to peace. The bank would be operating towards piling up funds for the recovery of the region. Azerbaijan would transfer to its Armenian citizens its debts accumulated during the years of the conflict - this is tens of thousands per person. The same bank would deal with sums of Karabakhi Azerbaijanis. The expert believes that no one forbids establishing a Free Economic Zone in Karabakh.  

Instead of the "abstract highest status" Zardusht Alizadeh is expecting Baku to cooperate with Armenian experts on elaborating proposals regarding the recognized status of autonomous democratic Karabakh - consent over "nonvertical relations" between Baku and Karabakh. "Armenian and Azerbaijani democrats are to undertake the initiative on elaborating the model of truly independent Karabakh", the Azerbaijani expert summed up.