The non-involvement of Armenia in the regional energy projects is destabilizing the situation in the South Caucasus, Tracy German, expert at King's College, London, said during the NATO Parliamentary Assembly's Rose-Roth Seminar in Yerevan on June 20.
She said that the isolation makes Armenia feel unconfident and increase its military potential. One more reason why Armenia is increasing its defense capital is the arms race initiated by Azerbaijan. According to the expert, in such a situation, it is hard to speak of regional stability, however, neither of the parties obviously wants any shocks because the shocks may reduce the investment programs and suspend the regional projects. She said that though the shortest way for transportation of gas from Azerbaijan to Europe lied via Armenia, nevertheless, the project passed by Armenia because the decision was taken by Shah Deniz Consortium (Azerbaijan).
To recall, the TANAP agreements was signed on 26 June 2012 in Istanbul. The capacity of the first line was to be 16 bln cu m: 10 bln for Europe and 6 bln for Turkey. This project was excessively politicized. Following the deterioration of the Russia-West relations due to the developments in Ukraine, Brussels qualified the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) as an alternative to the Turkish Stream. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev calls TANAP "the project of the century" and positions Baku as an independent actor on the gas market.