Wednesday, June 22 2016 07:29

A full-blown renewal of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would jeopardize Russia's position in Azerbaijan and Turkey, particularly if the Armenians required military assistance, says Chatham House in a briefing paper: "The Long Goodbye: Waning Russian Influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia."

 "Pipeline security would also be affected, and Russia prioritizes energy security and financial profit over conflict manipulation," Chatham House writes. " It is an open question whether Russia would support Armenia militarily should Azerbaijan decide to retake the territory by force. It is conceivable, however, that this uncertainty is a factor in Azerbaijan's restraint so far." 

According to the briefing paper, "Russia's support of Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute has been based on several interests: limiting Turkish influence, countering a Russophobic Azerbaijan in the early years of independence, and long-standing cultural ties reflected in the large Armenian diaspora in Russia. Russia's positioning has given it a powerful lever of influence over Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as external parties.  However, its backing of Armenia's stance has changed in recent years: during his presidency, Medvedev invested more effort in mediation than his predecessors and the Azerbaijani first family has strong interests in Russia. But there are forces deriving financial profit and political leverage from continued tension and the status quo. Russia sees its mediation over Nagorno-Karabakh in terms of its influence and may not be genuinely interested in a resolution. This is shown by Russian objections to an international peacekeeping force and to changes in the make-up of the Minsk Group, which has been mediating on the conflict since 1992. Russia has proposed deploying its own troops instead. This would strengthen its position, but seems unlikely to be accepted by Azerbaijan."