Friday, April 10 2015 04:52

 

Mr. Voskanyan, Iran and the world powers reached a framework agreement on April 2. Which of the parties has benefited from it?

 

The results of the talks in Switzerland are a compromise, but Iran has reserved the right to develop the nuclear program. The Geneva agreements have actually removed the threat of a military operation against Iran. No one would benefit from a new war in the Middle East.

 

What would you say about the prospects of economic partnership in the context of Armenian-Iranian cooperation?   

 

The Iranian market has always been closed and protective. I don't think it will undergo any serious changes if the sanctions are rescinded. Nevertheless, joint projects with Armenia are either frozen or semi- frozen now as Iran is suffering financial problems due to the west's sanctions.  I am speaking about the construction of Iran-Armenia railway and oil pipeline. After the sanctions are lifted, Iran will return to the world market of energy resources as the economic situation will significantly improve in that country.  This will guarantee resumption of the energy projects with Armenia. It is very important that Armenia has special trade regime with the EU - GSP+. On the other hand, Armenia as a member of the Eurasian Economic Union is an important channel for Iran to enter the European and Eurasian markets. 

 

Given the growing role of Iran in the regional processes, what goal does the US pursue when temporizing with Tehran and actually letting off the leash for further actions in the Middle East?   

 

The United States and its western satellites, which were conducting a “controlled chaos” policy, have lost the control over that chaos. So, the West needs a stable and strong player in the region that can help remove the "outrage" in the region. The USA needs a country that has levers of influence and is able to assume the functions of a regional "gendarme" to settle the situation in Iraq. The city of Tikrit was liberated from the Islamic State militants with active participation of the Iranian special forces. Iran is also needed for normalizing the situation in Syria and to some extent in Afghanistan given the withdrawal of the coalition troops from that country. In addition, the latest developments in Yemen and Iran's support to the Houthis have demonstrated that Tehran's interests on the Arabian Peninsula are still relevant. We know that Bab el Mandeb - the oil-bearing artery - is currently in the Houthis' hands. Iran has held its ground under the sanctions without undergoing internal shocks and has become the only stable place in the Middle East today. Tehran may become a valuable ally of the West. Certainly, it has a long way to establish allied relations, but the first steps are already being taken.    

 

How will Ankara react to the strengthening of its traditional regional rival, which also has a certain influence - the Kurdish factor?  

 

Turkey is really concerned by Iran's ascendancy in the Middle East. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent anxious response and comments on Tehran's stand on Yemeni events proves the Turkish concerns. Until recently Iran and the West had strained relations and at that time Iran no how responded to the Turkish attempts at regional expansion. Up to a certain time Tehran did not want to mar its relations with the closest neighbour. I believe the situation has changed. Less confrontation with the West gives Iran a chance to take a more radical and unyielding position towards Ankara. Iran has essential levers in Turkey - the Kurdish factor, alawi - who are almost 20% of the Turkish population. Tehran has not played this trump yet - or has played it partially. I mean the recent abduction of the Turkish prosecutor general. Despite far right Shia organizations were responsible for the abduction, most often alawi are behind such actions. To sum up, we can say that Iran has both political, economic and energy leverages against Turkey.

 

What factor is Armenia for Iran following the accession to the EEU? 

 

Judging by the Iranian high-ranking officials' statements, Tehran's attitude to Armenia's choice is positive. Now it is hard to say how Iran sees Armenia within the EEU, but Armenia may become a bridge between Tehran and the EEU countries. Armenia has always been a reliable partner in this respect.  

 

May Moscow hinder the intensification of the Armenian-Iranian economic cooperation?

 

Certainly, there is some competition between Moscow and Tehran in the South Caucasus, even in the energy sector. But it should be noted that the third countries also have their interests in the South Caucasus. Amid the Russia-US confrontation, Moscow benefits from the presence of a strong ally in the region - Armenia. This envisages close cooperation between Yerevan and Tehran. Armenia is also an important point for entering the Middle East. The Russian leadership should realize that Russia itself eventually benefits from the multi-vector foreign policy of Armenia. I think the best scenario here is to combine the Russian and the Iranian interests in the South Caucasus.