The August meeting of the Russian and Armenian leaders has become an important "time check" in the context of geopolitical shifts, Russian analyst Sergey Markedonov has told ArmInfo when commenting on the results of the meeting of Vladimir Putin and Serzh Sargsyan in Moscow on August 10.
"Despite the visible increase of the number of meetings with participation of the Russian and Armenian presidents over the past few months, one should not consider the working visit of Serzh Sargsyan to Moscow on August 10 to be an ordinary event," Markedonov says, noting that one of the reasons is that Armenia is on the threshold of electoral processes of 2017. "I think that the Russian theme will play a significant role in the parliamentary elections in this country," he says.
The analyst stresses the continuous ceasefire violations on the line of contact of the Karabakh and Azerbaijani troops. He points out that the threat of recurrence of April events is still relevant notwithstanding the attempts to maintain the negotiations. The expert points out the link between the Karabakh conflict and the socio-economic activity in Armenia. He thinks the issue of possible concessions and the price of peace vividly demonstrated the willingness of a part of Armenian society to take radical steps, even to come out against the authorities.
Markedonov notes that the Armenians' reaction regarding the defense of Karabakh is beyond the Armenian domestic political agenda, touching on the problem of the price of Yerevan-Moscow alliance. Markedonov stresses that Armenian illusions to get rid of Russian control as the best possible option in the fight for Karabakh are cherished with the lack of clear dynamics in the Russian-Armenian relations.
The analyst also points at the serious changes of background factors of regional policy of the past few months, particularly, the lack of clear building of antagonistic blocs after Russia and Turkey switched from strategic partnership to confrontation in November 2015. Markedonov stresses the intention of Moscow and Ankara to avoid open confrontation and to find common points between Iran and Azerbaijan. The analyst thinks that despite Moscow's unambiguous demonstration of reluctance to promote changes in the status quo and a choice between Yerevan and Baku, Moscow is considering such an opportunity, wishing no acceleration of this process, fairly being afraid of multiplication of risks and unpredictability.