"I do not think that we will shortly witness the recurrence of the Georgian-Russian war scenario of 2008 or the Crimean scenario in the South Caucasus," Sabine Freizer, a senior fellow of the Atlantic Council, said in an online interview when replying to ArmInfo's question.
She admits that the South Caucasus is of geopolitical significance but, unfortunately, the region is not so important for most of the international policy makers. She thinks that the course of developments in Ukraine has not radically been changed and the tension between Russia and the US/EU has escalated. In the meantime, these actors apply soft power to spread their influence on the South Caucasus, particularly, through Eastern Partnership and the Eurasian Economic Union. However, such a policy is not developing into tough competition in terms of security.
Freizer thinks that the South Caucasus might serve as a global transit and transport corridor, however, the unresolved conflicts have rapidly minimized this potential. She said that the United States does not apply strong influence methods in the South Caucasus. The States considers the region as a transit point to Central Asia/Afghanistan, as well as a point to transport energy resources to the EU and to control trafficking. The USA does not conduct a policy compared to Eastern Partnership, she said.
She believes that Armenia remains on the US agenda due to the Armenian community in the United States. However, the Armenian lobby's influence is not so big given President Obama's reluctance to recognize the Armenian Genocide.
To note, experts, analysts and politicians give interviews to Armenian media within the framework of the "Region" Research Center's project "Topical Dialogues on Armenia's New Integration Agenda."