There are a number of actors who are interested in growing tensions in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, Russian political expert Alexander Sotnichenko told ArmInfo on Saturday.
"One of them is the United States. Now that the Americans have strained relations with Russia, they are seeking to weaken its allies, including Armenia, and to discredit any international projects in the post-Soviet area. So, they may well be financing Armenian forces opposing the existing status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh. The other destabilizing factors are the oppositionists like the Pre-Parliament and those criticizing Russian-Armenian relations after the tragedy in Grumri. Many experts believe that this may be a sign of somebody preparing to topple the ruling regime in Armenia,"
Sotnichenko said.
Regarding Azerbaijan, he said that that country has a strong "party of war" - an opposition force comprising a number of high-ranking military officials and MPs. "They believe that now that Russia is having problems with its Eurasian Economic Union and the Customs Union projects, Azerbaijan's military and economic dominance in the regions can help it to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem by force. Aliyev's regime is hardly interested in this, but considering Azerbaijan's oil price-related problems, those wishing to solve the country's problems by means of a splendid little war may prevail," Sotnichenko said.
According to the expert, the passiveness of the OSCE Minsk Group makes things even worse. "Their strategy is not to resolve the conflict but to freeze it and to prevent a new war, but sooner or later it may fall victim to some provocateurs," Sotnichenko said.
As far as Turkey is concerned, he believes that the Turks are not interested in high tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh. "They have lots of unsolved political problems of their own. What they seek in the South Caucasus is economic dominance and this can be attained only in case of political stability. On top of this, the Turks enjoy quite good partner ties with the Russians. So, they must be very careful in this region so as not to spoil this partnership," Sotnichenko said.