The Karabakh conflict zone will experience even more escalation and the peace process will be temporarily suspended, political expert Alexander Markarov said at a press conference in Yerevan on May 4.
The expert thinks this is demonstrated by deployment of more Azerbaijani troops near the line of contact with Artsakh. However, Markarov cannot say whether Azerbaijan will launch an offensive on May 9. "Though many political experts say Azerbaijani armed forces will launch an offensive on May 9, I think they are unlikely to do it. It makes no sense to unleash hostilities in order to suffer another defeat. In order to do that, Baku must be sure that it will succeed. But after the fiasco in the latest aggression, there is no such a guarantee," Markarov stressed. He noted that the Armenian side has also toughened its stand. He thinks the international community can contribute to reduction of tension in the conflict zone, however, it is very passive.
Markarov stressed that common ground and acceptable proposals are needed to continue the talks, but there are no such proposals at the moment. "These may be either the Kazan documents or the updated and improved Madrid Principles, however, there are no prerequisites yet to continue the talks," he said. At the same time, the expert thinks Armenia's recognition of Artsakh will mean that Yerevan sees no other way to resolve the conflict. "Recognition of Artsakh's independence and Artsakh's unification with Armenia would shift the conflict to another level," he said, meaning that this would result in large-scale military operations.
To note, Deputy Foreign Minister of Armenia Shavarsh Kocharyan says that Armenia will recognize Karabakh in case Azerbaijan resumes its large-scale aggression in the Karabakh conflict zone. In addition, the Government of Armenia will discuss a bill recognizing the Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) on May 5. The bill was submitted by the opposition MPs Zaruhi Postanjyan and Hrant Bagratyan. For his part, Armenian Defense Ministry Spokesman Artsrun Hovhannisyan says that the adversary is deploying more troops along the line of contact.