ArmInfo.Prospects of Russia's geopolitical shift to Turkey and Azerbaijan are insignificant, unless there are force-majeure circumstances, says Russian political analyst Sergey Markedonov.
Talking to ArmInfo, he said Vladimir Putin's October 10 visit to Istanbul was a response to Recep Erdogan's visit to Saint Petersburg in August 2016. "Azerbaijan's president, the strategic ally of Turkey and important partner of Russia, participated in the meeting, which gave additional importance to it. Normally, after such meetings, it is supposed that new configurations are emerging in the Middle East and Transcaucasia. Naturally, any visit of Russian officials to Turkey and Azerbaijan like the discussion of economic and security issues arouses concern of Yerevan," he said.
After the April flare-up in Karabakh and the July events in Yerevan when Sasna Tsrer group seized a police compound demanding the president to leave, Yerevan's concerns are justified. These concerns are doubly justified amid the rumors on "Lavrov's Plan" and re-orientation of the Russian policy to the Turkic world. Markedonov believes that all this is backed by the opponents of the pro-Russian foreign policy vector of Armenia and the information experts, publicists supporting Azerbaijan.
In fact, the political analyst says, such reorientation of Russia is unlikely, as the Russian diplomacy prefers status quo and reactive behavior. Russia makes tough response only when the balance favorable to Moscow is broken, Markedonov says, bringing such examples as Mikheil Saakashvili in Georgia, the foreign interference in the Middle East, 'second Maidan' in Kiev.
The analyst characterizes the Armenian-Russian relations as relations of asymmetric allies. It is necessary to take into account the negative response of the small Armenia having many diasporas and lobbying organizations in U.S. and EU. Markedonov believes it important that Yerevan can influence the integrity of EEU and CSTO directly or indirectly considering that other leading partners of Moscow can perceive that specifically.
"Russia's relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan from Black and Caspian Seas to Mediterranean Sea are quite important". However, constructive relations between Russia, Turkey and Azerbaijan should be developed not hindering other positive results, acting rationally, pragmatically and selectively, not limiting to Eurasian brotherhood and traditional values, the analyst summarized.