Is Azerbaijan really becoming the area of confrontation between Iran and Israel?

• Wednesday, February 22, 03:35

Washington. Throughout the last two decades, Iran often reprimanded Azerbaijan for being pro-Israeli and pro-American, and warned that if it hosted US military facilities it would face devastating Iranian attacks.  Most recently, last week, Tehran officially complained about Azerbaijan, accusing the Azeris of turning a blind eye to Mossad agents operating in the country.

On January 25, Baku uncovered an Iranian plot to assassinate Israel's ambassador to Azerbaijan.  This tension came after Iranian sites launched cyber-strikes against 25 Azeri Internet sites on Jan.16.Turan's Washington DC correspondent asked Washington-based security analysts whether Azerbaijan was really becoming an area of confrontation between Iran and Israel.

Michael Rubin, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) who worked as a Pentagon adviser on Iran and Iraq during the first George Bush administration, says, "If there is a conflict between Israel and Iran in Azerbaijan, "it is because Tehran treats Azerbaijan as its near- neighbour and does not fully respect Azerbaijani sovereignty".

"Because of years of Iranian support for Armenia as well as Iranian attempts to radicalize Azerbaijani imams, it is natural that Azerbaijan would have closer relations to Israel", he argues.  In the meantime, the analyst adds, Azerbaijan "will continue to declare itself neutral, even if it covertly assists anti-Iranian forces: Azerbaijan would gain far more from an alliance with the West than Iran".

                Asked, weather Iran might attack Azerbaijan or its oil and gas facilities, should the tension escalate, Rubin said, "Iran would be much more likely to attack facilities in Bahrain or Qatar where Americans are based, and where Iran has more complicated disputes".

What might be the role of Iranian Azeris if the tensions in the region grow? Where will they be placed in this game?

                For Rubin, it is hard to talk about Iranian Azeris as a monolith. "After all, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is an ethnic Azeri", he says. "Azeri federalist or nationalist groups inside Iran have always overstated their influence, although the situation is changing so rapidly that it's impossible to predict the future".

Another analyst, Stephen Blank, from the Strategic Studies Institute of the Army War College, underlines that the latest crisis demonstrates that "Tehran menaces all its neighbors and rivals - not just Israel".

"This is not the only such plots against Israel in Azerbaijan", he reminds. "In 2008, Azeri security forces seized members of a terrorist cell who planned to blow up Israel's embassy in Baku". Iran also targets Azerbaijan, says Blank. "In 2001, Iranian forces blew up an Azeri oil exploration ship in the Caspian Sea, claiming it was in Iranian territorial waters. In 2009, Iran's movement of an oil rig toward Azerbaijan's territorial waters in the Caspian Sea led Baku to seek Washington's advice about reacting to this perceived threat of a joint Iranian-Russian encirclement".

For Blank, "since Iran is regularly cited as a leading state sponsor of terrorism, it is hardly surprising that it continues to foment terrorist plots against neighboring governments".