Because of stepping in of the sanctions of the EU against Iran, the problem of these sanctions affecting the Armenian-Iranian partnership is become more and more relevant. Let’s turn to the key problem – the energy projects, being implemented by the two countries, which are of a great significance in the Armenian-Iranian dialogue.

It is obvious that the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline is one of the brightest displays of the Armenian-Iranian energy partnership, and is of an important geo-political significance at the local as well as regional level. The project was successfully launched and despite various views about functioning of the gas pipeline and its further entering the third countries, one thing is obvious: the gas pipeline has provided an alternative way for the energy safety of the republic and diversified its energy system much.

The Iran-Armenia gas pipeline is the only project being implemented by the Iranian and Armenian parties today. The construction of the oil processing plant at the Armenian-Iranian border as well as of hydro power plants at the border river Arax and laying of the oil pipeline Tabriz-Megri should be mentioned among the most important ones.

As for the affect of the economic sanctions at the Armenian-Iranian partnership, I should say that the system of the closed-loop reproduction is impossible in the modern world despite the level of a country’s integration in the world political and economic processes. Certainly, in this case we would like it very much. So, what is the most possible scenario of development of events around our neighbor Iran? And how can it affect Armenia?

Today Iran says about possible closing of the Ormuz channel, which links the Persian Gulf to the Oman one. This will undoubtedly strike a serious blow upon the world oil market. According to some predictions, the oil price will grow up to $200 for a barrel, which will directly affect the economy of several European countries and the USA. It means that the possibility of US attack upon Iran will grow much. As no country can implement large-scale projects in the war conditions, which demand big financial investments, Iran will be forced for some time to forget about extension of its energy and transport markets. Moreover, foreign investments are often necessary for fulfillment of similar programmes, which is hardly possible. There is a viewpoint that the financial potential of Iran is enough to continue the fully-fledged cooperation within the frames of the new projects. But I should say that even in case of availability of the political will and readiness to activate cooperation by Iran, it will hardly want to single-handedly finance inter-state projects. So, Armenia will be forced to apply to foreign credits and increase its foreign debt in such a way. But is the country ready to such a risk?

At the same time, the pressure by several countries of League of Arab Countries which support the West, has been growing, especially from the side of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which said about increasing of oil production by 3-5 barrels per day and about the guaranteed delivery of oil to the western countries. Moreover, the authorities of Saudi Arabia have been holding an active dialogue with their Chinese counterparts on refusal for China from the Iranian oil. We have the first results of these talks. One of the two biggest buyers of the Iranian oil – Unipec company has recently said about reduction of the Iranian oil purchasing in 2012. It is obvious that even if certain volumes are preserved, the pragmatic China will try to make use of the created situation and force Iran reduce the price for oil. And although Iran is in the three of the most oil and gas containing countries of the world, and consumption of energy resources by mankind is growing by 2% every year, it is very much possible that for some period of time Iran will find itself out of the big energy game. Undoubtedly, Armenia will go on purchasing Iranian oil, but some programmes recorded by inter-governmental commissions perhaps will not be implemented, at least over the coming years.

Sanctions against Iran and energy interest of Armenia

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